華源證券股份有限公司劉曉寧,查浩,鄧思平近期(qi)對廣(guang)(guang)州發(fa)展進行研究并發(fa)布了研究報告《廣(guang)(guang)州市(shi)屬綜合能源平臺(tai) 穩(wen)增長(chang)高股息迎發(fa)展》，首次覆蓋廣(guang)(guang)州發(fa)展給予(yu)買入評級。
廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)發(fa)展(zhan)(600098)投(tou)資(zi)要點(dian)：廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)市屬(shu)綜合能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)平(ping)臺，多元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)實(shi)現(xian)對(dui)沖(chong)，業(ye)績(ji)穩(wen)(wen)定性(xing)突出。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)實(shi)控(kong)人為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)市人民(min)政府，已(yi)形成(cheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)、能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)物流、燃氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)、新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、儲能(neng)、能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)金(jin)融等(deng)業(ye)務協同(tong)(tong)(tong)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)產業(ye)體系。截至2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)底(di)(di)(di)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)總裝(zhuang)機10.26GW，其中煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)3.14GW、氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)2.34GW、風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)2.44GW、光(guang)伏2.35GW。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)業(ye)務多元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)協同(tong)(tong)(tong)，除煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)外另持(chi)(chi)有(you)大量(liang)(liang)穩(wen)(wen)定收(shou)益類資(zi)產，能(neng)夠有(you)效平(ping)滑其業(ye)績(ji)波動(dong)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)業(ye)績(ji)穩(wen)(wen)健，2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以來(lai)除火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)普遍大幅(fu)虧損的(de)(de)(de)2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)實(shi)現(xian)穩(wen)(wen)定增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)實(shi)現(xian)歸母凈利(li)(li)潤17.32億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.73%。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)連續26年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)穩(wen)(wen)定分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)，多年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)比(bi)(bi)例穩(wen)(wen)定在(zai)(zai)50%左右，2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)分(fen)(fen)紅(hong)比(bi)(bi)例54.67%，對(dui)應(ying)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)末(mo)股(gu)息率4.21%。聚焦大灣區火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)回落(luo)后火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)具備業(ye)績(ji)彈性(xing)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機組集中在(zai)(zai)粵港澳(ao)大灣區電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)負荷中心，受廣(guang)(guang)東省電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需及(ji)現(xian)貨(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)影(ying)響(xiang)，2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以來(lai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用小時數(shu)有(you)所下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑；2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)廣(guang)(guang)東省年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度長(chang)(chang)協電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑0.074元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時，預計(ji)將影(ying)響(xiang)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)；但(dan)成(cheng)本(ben)端(duan)(duan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)亦持(chi)(chi)續回落(luo)，2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)二季度以來(lai)秦皇島港口5500大卡(ka)動(dong)力(li)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)現(xian)貨(huo)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)634元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降214元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸，期待后續低(di)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)燃料成(cheng)本(ben)端(duan)(duan)的(de)(de)(de)改善效果對(dui)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)績(ji)的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)益作用。新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)業(ye)務快速(su)發(fa)展(zhan)，規(gui)劃到(dao)(dao)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)底(di)(di)(di)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機規(gui)模達(da)8GW。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)項(xiang)(xiang)目主(zhu)要分(fen)(fen)布(bu)于(yu)華(hua)南、華(hua)中、華(hua)北(bei)、西南等(deng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)較高(gao)、消納(na)情況較好的(de)(de)(de)地區，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)規(gui)劃到(dao)(dao)2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)底(di)(di)(di)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機規(gui)模達(da)8GW，新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機投(tou)產有(you)望持(chi)(chi)續為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)貢獻發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)方(fang)(fang)面，受新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)項(xiang)(xiang)目均(jun)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)平(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)項(xiang)(xiang)目及(ji)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)入市影(ying)響(xiang)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)有(you)所下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑，2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.458、0.508元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時，分(fen)(fen)別(bie)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑0.065、0.016元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時。燃氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)項(xiang)(xiang)目聚焦廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)，銷(xiao)(xiao)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)穩(wen)(wen)健。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)下(xia)(xia)(xia)屬(shu)廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)燃氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)集團是廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)市城市燃氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)高(gao)壓管(guan)網建(jian)設和天(tian)然氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)購銷(xiao)(xiao)唯一主(zhu)體，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)LNG應(ying)急(ji)調峰氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)站(zhan)(zhan)于(yu)2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)投(tou)產，另參股(gu)珠(zhu)海金(jin)灣LNG接收(shou)站(zhan)(zhan)和廣(guang)(guang)東大鵬LNG接收(shou)站(zhan)(zhan)。近(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)來(lai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)天(tian)然氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)銷(xiao)(xiao)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)量(liang)(liang)穩(wen)(wen)定增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)完成(cheng)管(guan)道燃氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)銷(xiao)(xiao)售量(liang)(liang)21.66億(yi)(yi)立方(fang)(fang)米，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)26.18%，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)下(xia)(xia)(xia)屬(shu)珠(zhu)江(jiang)LNG電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠二期于(yu)2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)投(tou)產，2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)貢獻供(gong)(gong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)，2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)分(fen)(fen)銷(xiao)(xiao)與直供(gong)(gong)銷(xiao)(xiao)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)49.84%。盈(ying)利(li)(li)預測與估值：我們(men)預計(ji)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)2025-2027年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)歸母凈利(li)(li)潤分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)18.49、21.20、23.73億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)6.74%、14.70%、11.91%，當前股(gu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)對(dui)應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)2025-2027年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)PE分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)12、10、9倍。首(shou)次覆蓋，給(gei)予“買入”評級。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)提示：電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)下(xia)(xia)(xia)行風(feng)(feng)險(xian)；煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)上漲風(feng)(feng)險(xian)；天(tian)然氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格上漲風(feng)(feng)險(xian)；新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)項(xiang)(xiang)目建(jian)設不及(ji)預期盈(ying)利(li)(li)預測與估值（人民(min)幣(bi)）
證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)之星數(shu)據中心根據近三年(nian)發布(bu)的(de)研(yan)(yan)報數(shu)據計算，東北證(zheng)(zheng)券(quan)廖浩祥研(yan)(yan)究員團隊對該股研(yan)(yan)究較為深入，近三年(nian)預測(ce)準(zhun)確度(du)(du)均值(zhi)為69.08%，其預測(ce)2025年(nian)度(du)(du)歸屬凈(jing)利(li)(li)潤(run)為盈利(li)(li)18.62億，根據現(xian)價換算的(de)預測(ce)PE為11.79。
該股最近90天內(nei)共有2家機構給(gei)出評級，買入(ru)評級2家；過去90天內(nei)機構目標(biao)均價為7.48。
以上內容為證券之星據(ju)公開(kai)信息整理(li)，由AI算(suan)法生(sheng)成(cheng)（網信算(suan)備(bei)240019號），不(bu)構(gou)成(cheng)投資建議。
證(zheng)券之(zhi)星估值分析提示(shi)廣州發展行業內(nei)競爭(zheng)力(li)的護(hu)城(cheng)河優秀(xiu)，盈利能力(li)較(jiao)差，營收成長性一(yi)般，綜(zong)合基本(ben)面各維度看，股價偏低。更多
以(yi)上內(nei)容與(yu)證券之星立(li)場無(wu)關。證券之星發(fa)布此內(nei)容的目(mu)的在于(yu)傳(chuan)播更(geng)多信(xin)(xin)息，證券之星對其觀點、判(pan)斷保(bao)(bao)持中立(li)，不保(bao)(bao)證該(gai)內(nei)容（包括但不限于(yu)文字(zi)、數據及圖表）全(quan)部(bu)或者部(bu)分內(nei)容的準確性(xing)、真(zhen)實性(xing)、完整性(xing)、有效性(xing)、及時性(xing)、原創性(xing)等。相關內(nei)容不對各位讀者構(gou)成任何投(tou)(tou)資(zi)建議，據此操作，風險自擔。股市有風險，投(tou)(tou)資(zi)需謹慎(shen)。如對該(gai)內(nei)容存在異議，或發(fa)現違法(fa)及不良信(xin)(xin)息，請(qing)發(fa)送郵(you)件至，我們(men)將安排(pai)核實處理。如該(gai)文標記(ji)為(wei)算法(fa)生成，算法(fa)公示請(qing)見(jian) 網信(xin)(xin)算備240019號。
