本(ben)周市場表現：截至6月(yue)27日收盤(pan)，本(ben)周公用事業板(ban)塊上漲0.1%，表現劣于大盤(pan)。其中，電力板(ban)塊上漲0.29%，燃氣板(ban)塊下(xia)跌(die)1.90%。
動力(li)煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)格:秦港(gang)(gang)動力(li)煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)(jia)格周環比(bi)上(shang)漲。截至6月(yue)27日，秦皇島港(gang)(gang)動力(li)煤(mei)(mei)(Q5500)山西產市場價(jia)(jia)614元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，周環比(bi)上(shang)漲4元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。截至6月(yue)27日，廣州港(gang)(gang)印尼煤(mei)(mei)(Q5500)庫提(ti)價(jia)(jia)667.35元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，周環比(bi)下跌0.85元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)；廣州港(gang)(gang)澳洲煤(mei)(mei)(Q5500)庫提(ti)價(jia)(jia)698.85元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，周環比(bi)下跌0.89元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。
動(dong)力煤(mei)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)及電廠(chang)日(ri)(ri)耗：秦港(gang)動(dong)力煤(mei)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減少，內(nei)陸電廠(chang)日(ri)(ri)耗周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)升。截(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)27日(ri)(ri)，秦皇(huang)島港(gang)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)565萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)13萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)。截(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)26日(ri)(ri)，內(nei)陸17省(sheng)(sheng)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)8824.3萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)284.7萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)升3.33%；內(nei)陸17省(sheng)(sheng)電廠(chang)日(ri)(ri)耗為(wei)(wei)365.2萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)14.5萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)/日(ri)(ri)，周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)升4.13%；可用天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)24.16天(tian)(tian)(tian)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.2天(tian)(tian)(tian)。截(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)26日(ri)(ri)，沿海8省(sheng)(sheng)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)3544.6萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)64.5萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)升1.85%；沿海8省(sheng)(sheng)電廠(chang)日(ri)(ri)耗為(wei)(wei)189.9萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)1.6萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)/日(ri)(ri)，周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.84%；可用天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)18.7天(tian)(tian)(tian)，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)0.5天(tian)(tian)(tian)。
水電來水情況：三峽(xia)出庫流量周環(huan)比減少(shao)。截至6月27日，三峽(xia)出庫流量17800立方米/秒，同(tong)比上(shang)升39.06%，周環(huan)比下(xia)降(jiang)2.20%。
重(zhong)點電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)：1）廣東(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)：截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)21日，廣東(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)日前現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)周(zhou)(zhou)度(du)均價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)275.53元(yuan)/MWh，周(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)21.83%，周(zhou)(zhou)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上升(sheng)1.4%。截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)21日，廣東(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)實時(shi)現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)周(zhou)(zhou)度(du)均價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)248.12元(yuan)/MWh，周(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)31.62%，周(zhou)(zhou)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)18.6%。2）山(shan)西電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)：截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)27日，山(shan)西電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)日前現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)周(zhou)(zhou)度(du)均價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)247.98元(yuan)/MWh，周(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上升(sheng)1.90%，周(zhou)(zhou)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)15.9%。截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)27日，山(shan)西電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)實時(shi)現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)周(zhou)(zhou)度(du)均價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)252.78元(yuan)/MWh，周(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)3.32%，周(zhou)(zhou)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)14.5%。3）山(shan)東(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)場(chang)：截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)13日，山(shan)東(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)日前現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)周(zhou)(zhou)度(du)均價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)282.56元(yuan)/MWh，周(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上升(sheng)11.11%，周(zhou)(zhou)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)17.2%。截(jie)(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)13日，山(shan)東(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)實時(shi)現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)周(zhou)(zhou)度(du)均價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)267.90元(yuan)/MWh，周(zhou)(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上升(sheng)9.26%，周(zhou)(zhou)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上升(sheng)9.3%。
國內(nei)外天然氣(qi)價格(ge)(ge)：國際氣(qi)價周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降。截至(zhi)6月27日，上(shang)海石油天然氣(qi)交易中心(xin)LNG出廠(chang)價格(ge)(ge)全國指數為(wei)4416元(yuan)/噸，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降0.29%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)0.20%；截至(zhi)6月26日，歐洲TTF現(xian)貨價格(ge)(ge)為(wei)11.41美元(yuan)/百(bai)萬(wan)英(ying)熱(re)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)7.8%，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降18.2%；美國HH現(xian)貨價格(ge)(ge)為(wei)3.4美元(yuan)/百(bai)萬(wan)英(ying)熱(re)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)28.3%，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降7.9%；中國DES現(xian)貨價格(ge)(ge)為(wei)12.89美元(yuan)/百(bai)萬(wan)英(ying)熱(re)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)3.6%，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降5.6%。
歐(ou)(ou)盟(meng)天然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)供需及庫(ku)存：2025年第25周(zhou)，歐(ou)(ou)盟(meng)天然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)供應量(liang)62.0億(yi)(yi)方，同(tong)比(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)7.6%，周(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)1.4%。其(qi)中，LNG供應量(liang)為28.3億(yi)(yi)方，周(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)8.0%，占天然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)供應量(liang)的54.4%；進(jin)口管道氣(qi)(qi)33.7億(yi)(yi)方，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)11.9%，周(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)10.9%。2025年第25周(zhou)，歐(ou)(ou)盟(meng)天然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)消費量(liang)（我們估算）為36.3億(yi)(yi)方，周(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)8.1%，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)1.5%；2025年1-25周(zhou)，歐(ou)(ou)盟(meng)天然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)累計消費量(liang)（我們估算）為1734.4億(yi)(yi)方，同(tong)比(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)8.0%。
國(guo)內(nei)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)供需情況：2025年4月，國(guo)內(nei)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)表(biao)觀消(xiao)費量為(wei)347.30億方(fang)，同比下(xia)降2.1%。2025年5月，國(guo)內(nei)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣(qi)產量為(wei)221.50億方(fang)，同比上(shang)升(sheng)9.3%。2025年5月，LNG進口量為(wei)484.00萬(wan)噸，同比下(xia)降26.3%，環(huan)比上(shang)升(sheng)4.3%。2025年5月，PNG進口量為(wei)526.00萬(wan)噸，同比上(shang)升(sheng)10.3%，環(huan)比上(shang)升(sheng)4.6%。
本周(zhou)行業(ye)重點(dian)(dian)新聞：1）新疆136號文(wen)承接——增量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)0.15-0.262元/kWh競價(jia)，機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)50%；存量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)0.25或0.26元/kWh，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)30%或50%：6月(yue)25日，新疆發(fa)改委就《自治區貫徹落實(shi)深化新能源上(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)市場化改革實(shi)施方(fang)案（試行）》發(fa)表解讀文(wen)件。新疆新能源的(de)(de)(de)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)、機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)等關鍵信息如(ru)下：對2025年(nian)(nian)6月(yue)1日以前投(tou)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)存量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)項目(mu)(mu)，區分補(bu)貼項目(mu)(mu)和平價(jia)項目(mu)(mu)。其中(zhong)，補(bu)貼項目(mu)(mu)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)0.25元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時、機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)例(li)為(wei)其上(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)30%；平價(jia)項目(mu)(mu)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)0.262元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時、機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)例(li)為(wei)其上(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)50%。2025年(nian)(nian)6月(yue)1日及以后投(tou)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)增量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)項目(mu)(mu)采(cai)用邊(bian)際出(chu)清方(fang)式、分類型（風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能）競價(jia)形成機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)，競價(jia)區間暫定0.150元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時—0.262元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時，機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)例(li)暫為(wei)其上(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)50%。2）西(xi)(xi)(xi)氣東(dong)輸四(si)線日，國家管(guan)網(wang)(wang)宣布，西(xi)(xi)(xi)氣東(dong)輸四(si)線（吐魯番(fan)—中(zhong)衛）甘(gan)寧段成功投(tou)產(chan)。本次(ci)投(tou)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)甘(gan)寧段管(guan)道長1162公(gong)里，起自紅(hong)柳壓氣站，止于中(zhong)衛聯絡(luo)站，與西(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)原油(you)(you)(you)管(guan)道、西(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)成品油(you)(you)(you)管(guan)道、西(xi)(xi)(xi)氣東(dong)輸二線條油(you)(you)(you)氣管(guan)道長距離并行敷設(she)，交叉穿越點(dian)(dian)密集。工(gong)程投(tou)產(chan)后年(nian)(nian)輸氣能力達150億立方(fang)米，折合替代(dai)標煤2700多(duo)萬噸，西(xi)(xi)(xi)氣東(dong)輸管(guan)道系(xi)統年(nian)(nian)輸送能力將達到“千(qian)(qian)億方(fang)”，顯(xian)著提升天然氣跨區域調配能力。
投資建(jian)議：1）電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)：國(guo)內歷經(jing)多(duo)輪電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)需矛盾緊張之后，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)板(ban)塊(kuai)有(you)望(wang)迎(ying)來盈利改(gai)善(shan)和(he)(he)價(jia)(jia)(jia)值重(zhong)估。在電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)需矛盾緊張的態勢下(xia)，煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)頂(ding)峰價(jia)(jia)(jia)值凸顯(xian)；電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)化改(gai)革的持(chi)續(xu)推(tui)進下(xia)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)趨勢有(you)望(wang)穩中小(xiao)幅上漲(zhang)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)現(xian)貨市場(chang)(chang)(chang)和(he)(he)輔助服(fu)務市場(chang)(chang)(chang)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)有(you)望(wang)持(chi)續(xu)推(tui)廣(guang)，容量電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)正式(shi)出臺，明確煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)基石地位(wei)。雙碳目(mu)標(biao)(biao)下(xia)的新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統建(jian)設或(huo)將持(chi)續(xu)依賴(lai)系統調節手(shou)段的豐富和(he)(he)投入。此(ci)外，伴隨著發改(gai)委加大電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)長(chang)協保供(gong)力(li)(li)度，電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)長(chang)協實際(ji)(ji)(ji)履(lv)約率有(you)望(wang)邊(bian)際(ji)(ji)(ji)上升，我(wo)們判斷煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的成(cheng)本端較為可控。展望(wang)未來，我(wo)們認為電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)運營商(shang)的業(ye)(ye)績有(you)望(wang)大幅改(gai)善(shan)。建(jian)議關注：全國(guo)性(xing)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)龍頭：國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)、華能(neng)(neng)國(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)、華電(dian)(dian)(dian)國(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)等；電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)應偏緊的區域龍頭：皖(wan)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)、浙能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)、申能(neng)(neng)股(gu)份、粵電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)A等；水電(dian)(dian)(dian)運營商(shang)：長(chang)江電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)、國(guo)投電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)、川(chuan)投能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、華能(neng)(neng)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)等；同時(shi)，煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備制(zhi)造商(shang)和(he)(he)靈活性(xing)改(gai)造技術類公司也有(you)望(wang)受(shou)益(yi)于煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)新周期的開啟(qi)，設備制(zhi)造商(shang)有(you)望(wang)受(shou)益(yi)標(biao)(biao)的：東方電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)；靈活性(xing)改(gai)造有(you)望(wang)受(shou)益(yi)標(biao)(biao)的：華光環能(neng)(neng)、青達環保、龍源(yuan)技術等。2）天(tian)然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)：隨著上游(you)氣(qi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)的回落(luo)和(he)(he)國(guo)內天(tian)然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)消費(fei)量的恢復增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，城燃業(ye)(ye)務有(you)望(wang)實現(xian)毛(mao)差穩定和(he)(he)售氣(qi)量高增(zeng)(zeng)；同時(shi)，擁(yong)有(you)低成(cheng)本長(chang)協氣(qi)源(yuan)和(he)(he)接收(shou)站資產的貿(mao)易商(shang)或(huo)可根據市場(chang)(chang)(chang)情況(kuang)自主選擇擴(kuo)大進口或(huo)把握國(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)轉售機(ji)(ji)遇以增(zeng)(zeng)厚利潤空間。天(tian)然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)有(you)望(wang)受(shou)益(yi)標(biao)(biao)的：新奧(ao)股(gu)份、廣(guang)匯能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)。
風險因素(su)：宏觀經濟(ji)下滑導致(zhi)用電量增速(su)不及(ji)預(yu)期，電力市場(chang)化改(gai)革推進緩(huan)慢，電煤長協保供政策執行力度不及(ji)預(yu)期，國內天然氣(qi)消費增速(su)恢復(fu)緩(huan)慢。
